We are the weakest link
An exciting new season of the podcast has launched (It's equally exciting on Spotify!). This week, we're discussing how the National Weather Service uses technology to keep honing in on the right areas for severe weather warnings.
Loyal Scaiaholics will recall I have a rich history of driving directly into severe weather to alert other people they should not drive directly into severe weather.
In fact, we'll also recall one of my most memorable career achievements was getting fired for getting water damage to car while driving into the path of a hurricane I'd been assigned to drive directly into.
At a conference this spring, I learned people drive directly into severe weather quite frequently. In fact, the National Weather Service would love for us to cut back on that.
The Texas Severe Storms Association's Martin Lisius explains he's seen each of these while chasing with the caveat he's received specific training and classwork to identify how to move alongside a tornado and keep a safe distance.
Frankly, though, the gentleman he describes below--the fella with some lawn chairs in the bed of his truck--seems like he'd be fun to hang out with. I'd just suggest maybe replacing the lawn chairs with some rocking chairs.
They want to stop people from getting complacent. They still want people to get the information they need to stay safe, but when you're trying to warn people, they've learned the weakest link in the system is... people.
To illustrate these concerns, they took the tornado that hit Moore, Oklahoma in 1999 and put its path over Arlington.
Since 1999, they explain the Metroplex has grown by two Oklahoma Cities, so this tornado would have plenty to hit even before reaching the stadiums. Because of that, they've kicked up enough trees and other debris so you might not even see it coming.
Since the area (and Texas as a whole) has grown, tornadoes are also more likely to hit populated areas than before.
Lisius says a popular misconception is tornadoes aim for mobile homes. In actuality, they're no more likely to be hit than other types of housing, but they are more likely to be destroyed. He says you're also up to 20 times more likely to be killed in a tornado if you're in a mobile home, so those are the places likely to get attention from the media.
One could also say survivors are 20 times more likely to have a reporter shove a microphone in your face to ask how you feel. I wouldn't say that, of course. That would be unprofessional. One could say that.
The conference, organized by the National Weather Service's Division of Harshing Your Buzz (Note from the National Weather Service: We most certainly do not have a Division of Harshing Your Buzz), did include changes they've made to the warning system to reduce complacency. The Storm Prediction Center says its tools are continuously getting more sophisticated, so they've already been narrowing tornado warnings to specific areas instead of entire counties.
The National Weather Service office in Fort Worth says these tools are important, too, with the World Cup coming up. They work with the North Central Texas Council of Governments, Texas Rangers, Dallas Cowboys and others on making sure everyone knows when weather might be a threat.
They'll do more of that with visitors coming from other countries. A fan from Czechia may not be used to the world ending with a severe storm, everyone hunkering down and maybe saying a brief prayer in the underbelly of AT&T Stadium, then the sun coming back out, and everyone just going on about their day.
To increase media participation for future events, the National Weather Service should consider, instead of experts laying out the scientific merits of warning systems and how they decide whether to issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning, have a harrowed-looking woman still in her bathrobe go to the podium and say how she thanks God because she can replace her stuff, but she's just glad her kids are okay.
That could be the entire conference. And every TV station would show up.
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